Israel at War: The Hamas Crisis
The ongoing war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
In October of 2023, Hamas launched a surprise offensive against Israel. Israel responded by declaring war on the jihadist regime. The current crisis continues to destabilize the region, threatening to pull the United States further into a proxy conflict against Iran. Ian Bremmer, a political scientist from Stanford University, gave a TED talk about the ongoing Israel-Hamas War. Here is a summary of his thoughts.
Occupied territories
Gaza has a population of about two million Palestinians. Those people are destitute and stateless. Another three and a half million live in the West Bank. It is administered by the Palestinian Authority, which recognizes Israel’s right to exist. Both of these Palestinian polities are poorly run.
Two-state solution
To resolve tensions between the Palestinians and their Israeli occupiers, the two-state solution has been proposed. This solution was designed to give the Palestinians some political autonomy. However, calls for a two-state solution have gone out of vogue, for various reasons. Seeing the stubbornness of both sides, many other Middle Eastern states have simply stopped caring about a Palestinian state. Those nations are interested in creating some kind of direct relationship with Israel, irrespective of the Palestinian question. This new approach was seen with the Trump administration’s Abraham Accords, where the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco all established direct relations with Israel. Many Israeli tourists enjoy visiting the Emirates, and are warmly welcomed there. Such a solution would have been unimaginable ten or twenty years ago. Saudi Arabia too was within months of reaching a similar agreement with Israel. There have already been many high-level diplomatic ties, albeit informal ones, between Israel’s Netanyahu and Saudi Arabia’s Prince Salman.
Israel
Israel has never been in a better geopolitical situation. Once surrounded by hostile enemies, the Jewish state now regards its Arab neighbors as a promising source of economic trade. The UAE announced a deal to invest solar power for Jordan, which would be given to Israel in exchange for desalinized water. Even five years ago, such a deal would have been inconceivable. Israel, with its sophisticated technology and advanced industrial economy, has a lot to benefit from trading with its Arab neighbors. While Israel is in a favorable situation, Palestine is not. The Palestinians have not been affected by Israel’s deals with its Arab neighbors. Their economy has not benefited in any way. Israel’s only major setback is its own domestic problems. A constitutional crisis has broken out, because of Netanyahu’s proposals to reform the judiciary. He has been investigated on charges of corruption. Despite some internal turmoil, Netanyahu’s Israel has continued to expand Israeli settlements in Palestine and retaliate against terrorist attacks.
Gaza War
The ongoing Gaza War was sparked by Hamas’ assault on Israel, which has been compared to America’s 9/11. But the impact of this particular terrorist attack on Israel is even more intense. Israel had ostensibly been prepared to repel such terrorist attacks. It boasts of one of the world’s most advanced defense and border security measures. The United States, by contrast, has a porous border that is not well-defended. Israel’s borders are protected by robust intelligence collection and surveillance, including digital surveillance. Human intelligence is deployed on the ground in the occupied territories. Politically, Netanyahu is facing the most important moment of his career. His response to the failure of Israel’s defense apparatus to prevent this 9/11-style attack will determine his legacy. Netanyahu’s war against Hamas will be more influential on Israel’s domestic politics than any other issue. Israel has many different political parties, and the citizens are highly engaged with the news. Domestic divisions will probably disappear quite quickly. Israeli hostages were taken by Hamas militants in Gaza. Most of them are civilians. Israel’s main priority will be to rescue the hostages, and they will expect American support in this endeavor. Israel’s long-term goal will be to invade Gaza, depose Hamas, and crack down on terrorism. Israel’s war on terror is not confined to Gaza. Hamas operatives will likely need to be neutralized within Israeli borders as well. More terrorism can be expected in the form of rockets and direct incursions. The extraordinary amount of planning required for Hamas’ offensive has deeply shaken Israel, which fears future attacks.
War on Terror
When al-Qaeda operatives struck at the Twin Towers in New York on 9/11, the US responded with the War on Terror. President Bush enjoyed an approval rating in the 90s. The Bush administration managed to organize a coalition of the willing to crack down on terrorism globally. This included many poor nations far beyond the normal NATO alliance, who provided troops for America’s crusade. Even Putin’s Russia supported America. Putin called Bush and offered his condolences. The Russian president offered the former Soviet republics of Central Asia as bases for American logistical operations for the war in Afghanistan. The world’s support for America after 9/11 was very high. Israel has undergone a similar experience. Global support for Israel is very high. The EU suspended aid to the Palestinians. Nearly every major country but Russia has condemned the attacks. America’s War on Terror resulted in many disastrous missteps and foreign policy errors. Trillions of dollars were wasted by the Department of Homeland Security. Overstating the terrorist threat had a corrosive effect on the US economy. Civil liberties were threatened by the surveillance of the Patriot Act. The Iraq War proved to be a disastrous miscalculation. Millions of lives were destroyed. Even after twenty years of occupation, the war in Afghanistan failed. The Taliban returned to power, presiding over what is essentially a failed state. Although bin Laden was killed, and al-Qaeda was dismembered, the costs of the War on Terror were still extremely high. Israel lacks many of America’s advantages in its own war on terror. Israel has regional dominance, but its territory is small. The consequences of failure are even more existential to Israel than America’s War on Terror. It threatens to engulf the entire Middle East in a regional war. The siege of Gaza will cut off food, electricity, and water to an already impoverished territory. This has serious implications not only for the Palestinians, but also for Israel’s international standing.
Hamas
Much of Hamas’ offensive is politically calculated to increase hatred of Israel. They want to goad the Israelis into overreacting. They use human shields. When the Israeli Defense Forces warns about attacking a building, Hamas tells the civilians that it is mere misinformation. Hamas wants the world to believe that Israel is complicit in its own indiscriminate slaughter of civilians. They also want to radicalize Palestinians and Arabs against Israel. Iran called for a genocide against Israel’s Zionist regime, and Hamas wants the rest of the Arab world to mirror those sentiments. The
Iran
The war immediately raised questions of whether Iran was behind the attack. US official sources reject any direct connection to Iran. However, Iran has strongly endorsed Hamas’ offensive, and has a track record of sponsoring terrorism. There have only been a few missile exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy. Officially, Iran has denied any direct involvement in Hamas’ war on Israel. Recently, Iran has enjoyed some geopolitical prestige. The Chinese brokered a peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia. After negotiations with the US, six billion dollars of Iranian asserts are set to be unfrozen. Five American hostages were released from Iran’s jails and repatriated. The Iranians have reduced the top level of uranium enrichment and some of their stockpiles, allowing international inspection. Although not a return to Obama’s Iran Nuclear Deal, Iran has shown more confidence in the face of international pressure. There is a possibility that Iran, through Oman, might restore relations with the United States. Given these positive developments, it seems unlikely that Iran would threaten its prestige by instigating a war with Israel. The Hamas War has enormously threatening implications. If it expands into Iran, crude oil prices will skyrocket, which could thrust the entire global economy into a recession. The entire region could erupt into a massive war. Israel and the United States are taking deliberate measures to avoid such escalation.
Palestinians
Palestinians are among the worst victims of the current crisis. Hamas has been clever in its ability to mobilize large swathes of Palestinian support. But the regime should not necessarily be conflated with the Palestinian populace. Palestinians are stateless and penniless. They will likely be among the main casualties of Israel’s war on terror, even if it is unintentional and collateral. The Palestinian Authority will try to mobilize international opinion against Israeli occupation. This might revive peace talks and the two-state solution. While the Palestinians probably would not get the land they might have gotten under Oslo Accords with Arafat and Rabin, a two-state solution would at least provide some stability and representation.
Fog of war
Since the Hamas War is ongoing, it will take some time before the facts come out. Each side will try to propagandize on its own behalf, exaggerating the enemy’s atrocities and its own victories. This is especially true in the Internet Age, where fake or out-of-context videos are easy to spread. In recent years, social media has become far more polarized and vitriolic than the mainstream media ever was. Death threats are increasingly common. Even with those disadvantages, Twitter still remains one of the most accessible sources for on-the-ground footage and information. Social media makes wartime propaganda easier than ever to spread, and it reinforces hatred and radicalism on both sides. This is an extremely dangerous development.
World War Three
The most dangerous locus of escalation is Lebanon, which is home to Hezbollah. Hezbollah operatives are decentralized, but well-trained. If those terrorists launch attacks on Israel, it could drag Lebanon and Iran into the conflict. The fate of the Israeli hostages is another vital concern. If Israel refuses to negotiate with Hamas, the situation could end up very bleak. Organizing a stable coalition government will be beneficial for Israel to navigate this untidy situation, and consider the longer-term implications of their actions.
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